Christie Reads, Withdraws

And then there were four. (And Asa Hutchinson.)

Sometimes, in order to break through someone’s stubbornness, you have to show you understand where they’re coming from. On Tuesday, Presidential Politics For America did just that with Chris Christie. In “Yes, Chris Christie Should Drop Out. Here’s Why He’s Not,” I showed the data that suggested he was standing in the way of a potential Haley win in New Hampshire, I conceded his ego was a factor for his staying in the race as long as he has, and I called the idea that he could still win “insane.” But I also showed I understood why he had stuck around and might continue to stick around: someone needs to be saying the truth about Donald Trump, and he worried Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley weren’t doing that enough. Nonetheless, literally above it all was my position that he should drop out.

One day later, despite having recently said, “Anybody thinks I’m getting out of this race, they’re crazy,” Chris Christie suspended his campaign. Coincidence?

Yeah, probably.

His announcement encapsulated all that was great and maddening about Chris Christie. The speech itself was tremendous. It’s worth watching:

It’s a better speech than our current President has ever given or could ever give. Same for the prior and maybe future President. He defended his truth campaign, articulated American values, and urged us to hold our leaders accountable. What most connected with this history and government teacher was when he asked what Washington and Hamilton and Adams and Franklin would think of the prospects of a Trump presidency. Christie knows their answer, and so do I.

Despite this brilliant 30 minutes, what more people want to talk about was a preceding 30-second hot mic moment. He said that Haley would “get smoked” moving forward and that “She’s not up to this,” and that a “petrified” DeSantis called him.

Christie had seemed to avoid any major gaffes this campaign, so props to him for getting one in at the buzzer. Trump world has celebrated these comments as a “Well he said he loves telling the truth!” situation, and they’ve used them to downplay the idea that Christie clearing a lane helps Haley overcome Trump. They’re probably right.

But maybe the biggest Christie error, more than the hot mic, is that the speech itself also took swipes at Haley and DeSantis. On his way out the door, he was still critical of both candidates’ lack of willingness to take on Trump, arguing, “Anyone who is unwilling to say [Trump] is unfit to be president of the United States is unfit themselves to be president of the United States.” Christie endorsed no one, because he didn’t think anyone was worthy of his endorsement.

I fail to understand the logic of describing a second Trump term as this awful specter followed by tearing down the last two Republicans who can stop him from winning the nomination. It’s akin to Democrats still rooting for a Trump nomination because he’d be a weaker general election opponent. If the man is a threat to democracy, no one should want him one election away from the presidency. It’s hard to trust that someone believes the first half of that sentence if they don’t agree with the second.

Still, hours later Christie was partially vindicated. In their Iowa debate, Haley and DeSantis were still competing to be #2 behind Trump. Once in a while, if sufficiently prompted by moderators, they’d point out Trump’s failures, but not nearly as relentlessly as they should have — as Christie would have — if they actually wanted to catch the guy who’s up 30 points in Iowa and 50 points nationally. They were too focused on attacking their counterpart for lying and corruption, going scorched earth on each other just so Trump could be king of the ashes.

So now what? We’ve given a lot of attention to how Christie’s suspension helps Haley in New Hampshire, and indeed it does. I’d say she’s now nearly even with Trump there, unless Christie’s hot and normal mics damage her credibility.

Before then, however, we have Iowa this Monday. Christie never competed in the state and is only polling around 3 or 4 points, as he is nationally. Still, with Haley and DeSantis in a deadlock in Iowa and national polls, if Haley gains 3 points from Christie’s withdrawal from the race, that could be enough to take second in Iowa which will help her in New Hampshire even more. Perhaps Christie’s surprise exit was not without its tactical errors, but the exit itself will still be a boon to Haley.

I’ll have more on the primary’s trajectory and Iowa predictions in the coming days.