Yes, Chris Christie Should Drop Out. Here’s Why He’s Not.

After a dearth of New Hampshire polling, two Granite State polls just came out within hours of each other. With the important New Hampshire Primary now less than two weeks away, we can expect a lot more, but that still leaves us 14 daily freakouts any time we get new info out of the state.

The latest freakout was a reaction to these results from a CNN/UNH poll:

New CNN poll in NH finds Haley within single digits, up 12 since their Nov. poll

Trump: 39
Haley: 32
Christie: 12
Vivek: 8
DeSantis: 5https://t.co/cjvOPXniJL

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) January 9, 2024

But drawing just as much attention as Haley’s surge is the guy in third place. Chris Christie hit a decent 12 points in this poll, as he did in the other Tuesday poll, that from USA Today and Suffolk.

Rather than being impressed with that number, however, anti-Trump Twitter was furious that Christie remains in the race, with some even thinking he must still be working for Trump.

Their logic is sound. It’s pretty clear that Christie voters’ second choice would disproportionately go to Haley, as FiveThirtyEight recently determined:

If Christie drops out and his 12 points are up for grabs, it looks like Haley would take about half and Trump perhaps none. (Logically, it would make zero sense for someone to be torn between the anti-Trump crusader and Trump himself.) I’d argue that a lot of that data is old enough to underestimate her gains. Haley should grab more than half at this point, as Haley is now more clearly positioned as a potential, if unlikely, Trump stopper. The CNN/UNH poll found as much, with 65% of Christie supporters saying they’d support Haley if Christie weren’t in the race, whereas no other candidate would get even 10% of his supporters.

Put another way: if Christie had dropped out, Haley may have led this CNN/UNH poll. Such a result could send shockwaves through the media and party, signaling to Trump-skeptical holdouts that she has earned their support, including Iowans ahead of their Monday caucuses. By Christie staying in, however, Haley remains out of arm’s reach from the polling leader.

In the words of National Review and Washington Post columnist:

Trump really should send Christie a fruit basket or something. https://t.co/kSyoBhlDve

— Jim Geraghty (@jimgeraghty) January 9, 2024

So if Christie has been so vocally and articulately anti-Trump, and his presence increases Trump’s chances of winning New Hampshire and by effect the nomination, why IS he still in the race?

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Christie recently said, “Anybody thinks I’m getting out of this race, they’re crazy.” Maybe it is crazy to think he actually cares about stopping Trump. Still, if we could crawl inside his head and understand him, what would we find is his reasoning for staying in? Here are some potential answers, from most to least cynical.

1) His ego. This explanation is what I see the most. Kinda boring, although its banality is not a strike against its accuracy. He wouldn’t be the first presidential candidate to get addicted to running for office, nor the last to overstay their welcome.

That said, I do think there’s a method to his madness. All candidates have egos, yet they drop out when it’s clear they have no chance. Further, these prior egoists’ messages haven’t typically been to stop the polling leader at all costs while simultaneously being a roadblock to dislodging that polling leader’s inevitability.

I don’t think Christie’s decision-making is driven by only ego. Maybe just a little.

2) He actually IS trying to help Trump. This is a 100% no from me. He’s been too vocal with his opposition, too precise with his arguments, too critical with his judgements. He is not trying to help Trump — even if his presence might have that effect.

3) He still thinks he can win nomination. It’s insane, but maybe? If candidates squint and turn their head enough, they can see a path where none exists. Christie will rely an on old adage: there are three tickets out of New Hampshire. He’s got a great shot to be in the top three. He’s polling third in both Tuesday polls and in an average of New Hampshire polls according to Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight.

Staying in third likely requires a DeSantis disappointment in Iowa next week. If DeSantis beats expectations to surge into a strong second, he’ll get an Iowa bounce in New Hampshire. I would think he would pass Christie in the process.

But if DeSantis disappoints in Iowa — say he finishes third behind Trump and Haley — his campaign will appear doomed. He may either drop out or continue to be fourth or fifth in New Hampshire, giving Christie that third ticket. Then it’s Trump, Haley, and him, and he sees what happens.

4) He thinks it’s the right thing to do, because Haley won’t challenge Trump.

Here’s where I’ve landed. Christie has a couple New Hampshire debate appearances coming up, and he wants to make sure someone up there is still making his arguments.

Christie has been making a lot of references to speculation that Trump may pick Haley to be his running mate, speculation that Haley has not disavowed, probably because she knows the vice presidency is likely her ceiling in this campaign. Christie’s point is a profound one — if she truly understood Trump’s threat to the party and the republic, she would not help him win the presidency. She’d instead put as much distance as possible between her and the former president, as Christie has.

But she hasn’t. And so to Christie, he doesn’t want to drop out to help clear the lane for someone to repeat his own mistake from 2016.

Therefore, we might get Christie staying in not only through New Hampshire, but through the entire primary process. Everyone else can drop out, but he’ll be there, reminding us who Trump is, for as long as people will put him on TV to say it. He wants to ensure that even if every other Republican takes up the party line to support the blowhard, at least one person is still shouting into the wind.

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Today’s featured image of Chris Christie folding his arms in defiance was made possible by the ubiquitous Gage Skidmore.