I'm on five hours sleep and kicking myself for yesterday's fourth prediction, so let's make this quick. It's time to close the book on Iowa and start the seven-day countdown to New Hampshire. Let's take a look at my Iowa predictions. Prediction #1: Of the five major candidates remaining, Asa Hutchinson will finish sixth. I… Continue reading Reflecting on Iowa, and on to New Hampshire
On July 18, the last day of the 2024 Republican National Convention, balloons will rain down on the Republican nominee for president. But who will it be? And how will they get there? Starting tomorrow, Iowa voters will be the first to give us some real answers. But let's be honest. People come to Presidential… Continue reading Who Will Win the Republican Primary — and How (a Power Ranking)
Kurt Vonnegut's final novel, Timequake (1997), explores a fascinating science fictional premise: what if the universe, in an instant, snapped back ten years, and all events that happened in those ten years must develop exactly as they had before? Such is the predicament in which Timequake's human race finds itself. On February 13, 2001, due… Continue reading The Next Debates (and Why They Matter)
Last post, I debuted the theme of the 2024 Power Rankings (chess!) before my first Power Rankings of the 2024 Democratic Primary. If history holds, however, that primary won't be that competitive because Democrats have the incumbent, President Biden, running for re-election. Usually it's the party without the president running for re-election that has the… Continue reading PPFA’s First 2024 Republican Primary Power Rankings
On November 14, I summarized the ancient "Sorites paradox," which wonders when a heap of sand, subjected to the steady removal of singular grains, no longer qualifies as a "heap." I used this analogy as a way to reframe the support for former President Trump, which seemed to be shrinking as a result of the… Continue reading One Year Until Iowa: Checking in On Trump’s “Heap”
Presidential Politics for America 