A Tale of Two States: a Look at Iowa & New Hampshire

So long, 2023. Hello, 2024! By the end of this year, we’ll have answers to the following questions:

• Did Donald Trump run away with the Republican Primary?
• Did Joe Biden make it to the Democratic National Convention?
• Did Donald Trump get convicted in any of his four criminal cases?
• Did Joe Biden make it to the election?
• Did Donald Trump get removed from the ballot for being an insurrectionist?
• Did Joe Biden make it to 2025?

My guesses: yes, of course, maybe one or two, probably, no, and define “make it.”

First things first. We have a Republican Primary to catch up on. The GOP’s Iowa caucuses are now less than two weeks away! The New Hampshire Primary is just a week after that. These opening states will likely determine the trajectory of the primary — will it be a 50-state sweep for Trump, or can one opponent at least make him sweat?

If there is any hope in derailing Trump’s nomination, convention wisdom says Trump must have a worse-than-expected showing in these opening states. Were there a single primary date for all 50 states, national polls suggest Trump would win by about 50 points:

Thanks to a state-by-state primary calendar, however, there are opportunities to hurt Trump in a handful of early states, potentially calling into question his inevitability before most of the country goes to the polls starting on March 5’s Super Tuesday.

Interestingly, these two states tell slightly different stories about the state of the Republican Primary. These are tales as old as primaries themselves: the base is in Iowa while the moderates are in New Hampshire.

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Iowa

The 2024 Iowa caucuses (scheduled for Monday, January 15) are the first chance to slow the Trump campaign. The latest Iowa polls show us that although the Republican base is still behind him, he’s not quite as dominant as he is nationally:

He appears ten points weaker in Iowa than he does across the country, and precedent suggests Iowa tightens down the stretch.

If polls tighten, one reason why might be that the debates start mattering. There will be a Des Moines debate on January 10. As expected, two candidates we’ve been used to seeing on the stage won’t be invited: Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie haven’t earned a single qualifying poll, of the 15 so far, to be on the stage. (Candidates needed three national and/or Iowa polls of 10%, with at least one being from Iowa.) The three candidates who did qualify are Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley, but if recent debates are any indication, Trump won’t risk his lead by subjecting himself to questions.

That likely leaves a debate stage with just two candidates who might be able to take advantage of Trump’s truancy. Eight years ago, his decision to skip the Iowa debate may have made the different in the caucuses. He had been leading Iowa polls by 4-7 points before that decision, but after the debate he was in a dead heat with Ted Cruz, and Cruz ultimately won by 3 points, perhaps a 10-point swing.

DeSantis and Haley can take advantage of that, although I expect that after some passing remarks about Trump’s absence in their opening statements, they will resume their civil war. The state is essentially do-or-die for DeSantis, who has moved all his eggs to the Hawkeye basket in the hopes of jumpstarting a dying campaign. If he finishes behind Haley in Iowa, it’s over, whereas Haley’s strength in subsequent states can help her withstand a third place finish. (More on that below.)

In addition to keeping an eye on second place, I think any fair-minded pundit should, in advance, lay down a marker for what counts as a Trump disappointment, because we’ll hear all sorts of spin from pro- and non-Trump sources after the fact. The most obvious marker, barring an improbable run from DeSantis or Haley cutting Trump’s lead to single digits in a 51-42 situation, would be if Trump falls below 50%. We see from the Iowa polling that he averages 51.3%, and he’s over 50% in five of the seven polls that make up the average. If from that position a former president falls below 50% at this late stage — perhaps because he doesn’t face questions from Iowa voters at their debate next week — it would be seen as disappointing. Something like Trump 47 to DeSantis 22 to Haley 20 to Ramaswamy 7 to Christie 3 to Asa Hutchinson negative 6 should be seen as a below-expectations win.

Ultimately, if we can say that more Iowa voters voted against him than for him, that can be seen as a tiny crack in the Trump facade. His opponents could try to widen that crack in…

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New Hampshire

Trump’s Iowa lead may be a bit lower than his national lead, but a 33-point margin over second place is still pretty dominant. His performance in moderate, independent-minded New Hampshire (primary on Tuesday, January 23), however, is even weaker than that:

Even his 46.3% might be inflated. That UMass Lowell poll is the only survey to find him above 50% since March, a run of 20 straight polls. (For what it’s worth, he hit exactly 50% twice in that stretch.) If we toss the outlier, Trump is under 45%. Meanwhile, it’s also interesting that two of the last three polls have Haley down by just 14 and 15 points. Popular New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu’s endorsement of Haley occurred on December 12, so Trafalgar’s poll didn’t capture its effects at all, while the 12-day UMass poll had completed half the survey before it. I’m interested to see what the post-holiday polls have to say.

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a poll in any state that has Trump leading someone by only 15 points, and Haley’s now done it twice in the last month. Her Granite State surge has her nearly as close to Trump as the pack is to her:

This is why Iowa is so much more important to DeSantis as Haley. If Haley edges out DeSantis in the caucuses, or even if they’re within just a couple of points, Haley’s lead over DeSantis in New Hampshire will hold up. Once she then finishes decisively over him in the second contest, DeSantis will have a hard time making the case he’s still the Trump-stopper, particularly with Nevada and then Haley’s home state of South Carolina looming in February, surely a spot where she prevails over DeSantis if they’re both still in it.

Christie and Ramaswamy remain as wildcards, particularly Christie. Ramaswamy’s probably holding on to a few Trump and DeSantis voters, but he’s polling at just 6% in the first two states and 4% nationally, so he’s far from a kingmaker. Christie, on the other hand, has hit double digits in five of the last six New Hampshire polls. With he and Haley seeing eye-to-eye on most issues in the “Republican Classic” lane, it’s reasonable that were he to drop out, she would strengthen considerably. If she’s down by 15 in New Hampshire with Christie in the race, I bet she’s down just single digits if he’s out, and that’s with three weeks still to go. If she finishes within single digits of Trump in the second state, nothing could send a clearer signal that she should be the last Trump opponent standing as the primary heads to its next stage. Christie’s presence in the race complicates that path.

That said, whether it’s DeSantis or Haley emerging from the early states, it’s important that not only are they seen to be strengthening heading into February and Super Tuesday, but it’s even more important that Trump is seen to be weakening. Let’s say Haley was the last candidate standing by Nevada and South Carolina, but she loses those states 70-30. It’s over. It does her no good to be all alone next to him if he’s gliding at 70% support. There must be a feeling that some of Trump’s blood is in the water, and that means that he’s held under 50% more often than he’s not heading into March.

That starts with Iowa in (checks sidebar) just 13 days.