Updated Democratic Primary Schedule

Yesterday examined the Republican Primary Schedule, and today I’ll repeat the same with the Democrats. I last looked at Democratic Primary calendar two months ago, but not every state and territory had yet chosen their primary date. Since then, all have done so except for the Northern Mariana Islands, which might have to be reminded they’re a part of the United States. For those who want a far-too-detailed breakdown of how states’ and territories’ delegation sizes for the 2016 Democratic National Convention were determined, that old post is for you.

Just like yesterday’s Republican Primary calendar, I’ll split the Democratic one into chunks. I’ll also only list pledged delegates. Of the 4,763 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention, only 4,051, or about 85 percent, are “pledged,” or beholden to the voters. The other 713 are powerful Democrats, better known as the infamous, unpledged “superdelegates,” and they might as well have “Vote for Hillary” stamps on their foreheads. (The GOP also has unpledged delegates, but there aren’t nearly as many.)

Anyway, off we go. First, the February states:

February 1, 2016	Iowa	44 pledged delegates
February 9, 2016	New Hampshire	24
February 20, 2016	Nevada	35
February 27, 2016	South Carolina	53

I dealt with these already. Nevada might turn out to be the surprising linchpin to the Sanders campaign. Winning Iowa and New Hampshire wouldn’t be enough if Clinton comes back with Nevada and all-but-locked up South Carolina, giving her momentum into…

Super Tuesday:

March 1, 2016	Alabama	53
March 1, 2016	American Samoa	6
March 1, 2016	Arkansas	32
March 1, 2016	Colorado	66
March 1–8, 2016	Democrats abroad	13
March 1, 2016	Georgia	102
March 1, 2016	Massachusetts	91
March 1, 2016	Minnesota	77
March 1, 2016	Oklahoma	38
March 1, 2016	Tennessee	67
March 1, 2016	Texas	222
March 1, 2016	Vermont	16
March 1, 2016	Virginia	95

Super Tuesday has 12 contests (13, if you count the beginning of the window for “Democrats abroad,” who better not have a baby while over there for fear of Donald Trump trying to block their offspring from the presidency) and 878 pledged delegates up for grabs. When this day is over, we’re probably locked into one of three scenarios:

• A) Clinton has a firm lead and Sanders will either concede or quietly fade until she clinches a majority of delegates in April. It would resemble the Democratic primaries of 2004 and 2000.
• B) Clinton has a small but clear lead and will be seen as inevitable again, but Sanders will still campaign hard and draw this thing out. Clinton would be playing the role of Senator Obama in 2008, holding a lead that appears vulnerable, but the delegate math and inertia make it an almost irreversibly slow bleed for the trailing candidate.
• C) They’re neck and neck or Sanders has a lead, at which point chaos ensues and Joe Biden eventually becomes the Democratic nominee, likely with Elizabeth Warren to consolidate the Sanders crowd.

Back to the calendar. Super Tuesday is followed by The Week After:

March 5, 2016	Louisiana	51
March 5, 2016	Nebraska	25
March 5, 2016	Kansas	33
March 6, 2016	Maine	25
March 8, 2016	Mississippi	36
March 8, 2016	Michigan	130

Which is really just an interim until…

The Second Super Tuesday:

March 15, 2016	Florida	214
March 15, 2016	Illinois	156
March 15, 2016	Missouri	71
March 15, 2016	North Carolina	107
March 15, 2016	Ohio	143

Just five states, but lots of delegates (691). If Sanders was holding on for dear life, these states might put him away.

Next comes The Mushy Middle:

March 22, 2016	Arizona	75
March 22, 2016	Idaho	23
March 22, 2016	Utah	33
March 26, 2016	Alaska	16
March 26, 2016	Hawaii	25
March 26, 2016	Washington	101
April 5, 2016	Wisconsin	86
April 9, 2016	Wyoming	14

That’s a 20-day stretch with no big prize. If Sanders can survive it, though — if we’re been somewhere between Scenarios B and C — he’s about to get a life line. That’s because starting on April 19, we arrive at:

The Northeast Liberal Late April States That Need A Catchier Label:

April 19, 2016	New York	247
April 26, 2016	Maryland	95
April 26, 2016	Connecticut	55
April 26, 2016	Delaware	21
April 26, 2016	Pennsylvania	189
April 26, 2016	Rhode Island	24

Wow! Those are some blue states.  If Sanders is competitive, you’d have to think he wins that group and wrests some momentum for the final push.

That final push begins with the underwhelming May contests:

May 3, 2016	Indiana	83
May 7, 2016	Guam	7
May 10, 2016	West Virginia	29
May 17, 2016	Kentucky	55
May 17, 2016	Oregon	61

Zzzz…

After we wake up from that boring month, we arrive at:

The June states (and territories) (and district):

June 4, 2016	Virgin Islands	7
June 5, 2016	Puerto Rico	60
June 7, 2016	California	475
June 7, 2016	Montana	21
June 7, 2016	New Jersey	126
June 7, 2016	New Mexico	34
June 7, 2016 June 7, 2016	North Dakota South Dakota	18 20
June 14, 2016	DC	20

Hello, California! Can Sanders survive until the mother lode of liberal states? I strongly doubt it. We’d be firmly in Scenario C at that point. Still, if you’re a Sanders supporter, you can dream.

There you have it, all the contests of the Democratic Primary. Well, all except for one that is. Don’t forget: The Northern Mariana Islands:

TBA

Marianas

6

Jerks.