Welcome to mid-June! Summer is here. You know what that means: not only is the weather about to heat up, but so are the 2022 midterms! (And more importantly for all of us, at the end of this week, my two-month break from school begins. I wish all professions knew the blissful feeling of recharging depleted batteries.)
Fewer than 150 days remain between us and the November 8 midterm elections, where the entire House and one-third of the Senate are up for re-election. I’m still convinced, as I was in January and May (to say nothing of last August), that a red wave will drench the House of Representatives. The Senate, too, is likely to go Republican, although we’ll see if the dramatic overturning of Roe, or some bad Republican nominees, help the Democrats hold the chamber.
Unless it’s a presidential year, summers are typically lazy for electoral politics, but perhaps hyperpartisanship keeps people’s attention between now and the fall. If you are one such mindful American, I thought a political calendar for the next three months might be useful.
Continue reading “The 2022 Midterms Summer Calendar”
Yesterday, I admitted that of all three pieces of government up for grabs — the House, the Senate, and the presidency — it was the Senate I found most difficult to predict. I give Democrats the big edge in the House, and Biden a small edge in the presidential, but the Senate looks like a toss-up.
To work though the prediction process, I narrowed down the field so I could more closely examine the most swingable races. I was able to piece together 94 of our 100 Senate seats, leaving six seats to analyze:
- Democrats: 35 seats not up for re-election + 10 safe seats + 3 battleground seats I felt comfortable predicting: 48
- Republicans: 30 seats not up for re-election + 10 safe seats + 6 battleground seats I felt comfortable predicting: 46
- Six seats left in play:
- Georgia normal election
- Georgia special election
- North Carolina
Most of those seats are in traditionally Republican areas, so although the Democrats are only two or three seats away from a majority (depending on the presidential race), it’s still an uphill climb. Let’s see if the GOP can hold them off…
Continue reading “Three Days Out: Saturday Senate Special”
All right, so far this week I’ve taken a look at the race for the House and the presidency (and the presidential tie-breaker!). Now it’s time for the Senate.
As I noted earlier, I’ve ordered this week’s predictions from most to least confident, and I reserve the right to update them on Tuesday morning. As of now, however, I’m very confident that the House remains Democratic, whereas I’m just barely confident Joe Biden, though he almost certainly will win the popular vote, wins the presidency.
When it comes to the Senate, however, PPFA is just a rapidly typing shrug emoji. I’m hoping researching and writing this post will help clarify a muddled Senate map.
Continue reading “Four Days Out: The Race for the Senate”
We made it. Tomorrow — tomorrow — is the 2018 midterm election. This website’s faithful readers know that I’ve periodically written about the 2018 Senate elections throughout the year. In all that time — from January 15 through last week — … Continue reading The PPFA Midterm Preview-and-Prediction-palooza, Part I: The Senate
Yesterday I found the Democrats still as small favorites to keep the House. How do I like their chances in the Senate? Let’s find out… The Senate Current composition: Red = 2 Republicans; Blue = 2 Democrats; Purple = 1 of each; Green = … Continue reading Two Weeks Out: The Senate
What’s this? A Friday post? You’re darn right it is. It’s that time of year. This week’s main post was historical, but with under 20 days until the 2018 Midterms, I can’t let a week go by without weighing in … Continue reading Quick Hit Friday: The Four Midterm Scenarios and Their Ramifications
Welcome to October, PPFA readers! While I adore baseball’s “Fall Classic” (especially when my beloved Red Sox are poised for a successful run), every two years the month of October gives us an even more heated contest: imminent federal elections. … Continue reading The Nine Senate Races to Follow in October
On Thursday I predicted the Democratic Party would take control of the House, but what about the Senate? Let’s find out… The Senate Current composition: Red = 2 Republicans; Blue = 2 Democrats; Purple = 1 of each; Green = Independents caucusing with Democrats … Continue reading 2018 Midterms: Two Months Out—The Senate
Last week, when I painted the House, I discovered that despite the strength of Democrats on overrated “generic ballots,” they still had an uphill climb to obtain the majority in the House of Representatives (even if a record number of Republican House members are retiring). If Democrats’ quest to regain the House ultimately fails, that puts even more pressure on the flailing party to regain the other half of Congress. Are their chances any better in the upper chamber? Let’s find out. The Senate Current composition: Republicans: 51 Democrats: 47 Independents: 2 (both caucus with Democrats, effectively giving them 49) … Continue reading PPFA’s First Look at the 2018 Midterms: Part 2–Sketching the Senate
In American politics, every even-numbered year hosts widespread federal elections. Though presidential elections understandably garner more attention, in between those contests are “midterm” elections, so-named due to the president being in the middle of his or her term. Though we obsess over the presidency, these midterm elections should receive as much of our attention; they essentially give the electorate control over our lawmaking body — the United States Congress. On November 6, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives (whose members have two-year terms) and about a third of the 100 Senate seats (six-year terms) will be up for grabs. … Continue reading PPFA’s First Look at the 2018 Midterms: Part 1–Painting the House