The 2022 Midterms Summer Calendar

Welcome to mid-June! Summer is here. You know what that means: not only is the weather about to heat up, but so are the 2022 midterms! (And more importantly for all of us, at the end of this week, my two-month break from school begins. I wish all professions knew the blissful feeling of recharging depleted batteries.)

Fewer than 150 days remain between us and the November 8 midterm elections, where the entire House and one-third of the Senate are up for re-election. I’m still convinced, as I was in January and May (to say nothing of last August), that a red wave will drench the House of Representatives. The Senate, too, is likely to go Republican, although we’ll see if the dramatic overturning of Roe, or some bad Republican nominees, help the Democrats hold the chamber.

Unless it’s a presidential year, summers are typically lazy for electoral politics, but perhaps hyperpartisanship keeps people’s attention between now and the fall. If you are one such mindful American, I thought a political calendar for the next three months might be useful.

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Three Days Out: Saturday Senate Special

Yesterday, I admitted that of all three pieces of government up for grabs — the House, the Senate, and the presidency — it was the Senate I found most difficult to predict. I give Democrats the big edge in the House, and Biden a small edge in the presidential, but the Senate looks like a toss-up.

To work though the prediction process, I narrowed down the field so I could more closely examine the most swingable races. I was able to piece together 94 of our 100 Senate seats, leaving six seats to analyze:

  • Democrats: 35 seats not up for re-election + 10 safe seats + 3 battleground seats I felt comfortable predicting: 48
  • Republicans: 30 seats not up for re-election + 10 safe seats + 6 battleground seats I felt comfortable predicting: 46
  • Six seats left in play:
    • Georgia normal election
    • Georgia special election
    • Iowa
    • Maine
    • Montana
    • North Carolina

Most of those seats are in traditionally Republican areas, so although the Democrats are only two or three seats away from a majority (depending on the presidential race), it’s still an uphill climb. Let’s see if the GOP can hold them off…

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Four Days Out: The Race for the Senate

All right, so far this week I’ve taken a look at the race for the House and the presidency (and the presidential tie-breaker!). Now it’s time for the Senate.

As I noted earlier, I’ve ordered this week’s predictions from most to least confident, and I reserve the right to update them on Tuesday morning. As of now, however, I’m very confident that the House remains Democratic, whereas I’m just barely confident Joe Biden, though he almost certainly will win the popular vote, wins the presidency.

When it comes to the Senate, however, PPFA is just a rapidly typing shrug emoji. I’m hoping researching and writing this post will help clarify a muddled Senate map.

Here goes.

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PPFA’s First Look at the 2018 Midterms: Part 2–Sketching the Senate

Last week, when I painted the House, I discovered that despite the strength of Democrats on overrated “generic ballots,” they still had an uphill climb to obtain the majority in the House of Representatives (even if a record number of Republican House members are retiring). If Democrats’ quest to regain the House ultimately fails, that puts even more pressure on the flailing party to regain the other half of Congress. Are their chances any better in the upper chamber? Let’s find out. The Senate Current composition: Republicans: 51 Democrats: 47 Independents: 2 (both caucus with Democrats, effectively giving them 49) … Continue reading PPFA’s First Look at the 2018 Midterms: Part 2–Sketching the Senate

PPFA’s First Look at the 2018 Midterms: Part 1–Painting the House

In American politics, every even-numbered year hosts widespread federal elections. Though presidential elections understandably garner more attention, in between those contests are “midterm” elections, so-named due to the president being in the middle of his or her term. Though we obsess over the presidency, these midterm elections should receive as much of our attention; they essentially give the electorate control over our lawmaking body — the United States Congress. On November 6, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives (whose members have two-year terms) and about a third of the 100 Senate seats (six-year terms) will be up for grabs. … Continue reading PPFA’s First Look at the 2018 Midterms: Part 1–Painting the House