And That’s Why 51 Matters: Sinema Leaves the Democratic Party

On Tuesday, I wrote about how the Georgia runoff greatly mattered even though Democrats had already secured a Constitutional Senate majority (50 senators plus the Vice President) in the next session. Among the reasons Democrats wanted to get to 51 was that a Democratic senator could die, be otherwise unable to vote, or even leave… Continue reading And That’s Why 51 Matters: Sinema Leaves the Democratic Party

Why the Georgia Runoff Matters (and Who Will Win It)

After some soccer to distract us from politics, today politics returns to center stage. Like some horror movie, the midterms are back from the dead for one last dramatic moment. (Just when you thought it was safe to go outside, District of Columbia Pictures presents... "Georgia Runoff III: Republicans' Revenge"!) Once again, a Georgia runoff… Continue reading Why the Georgia Runoff Matters (and Who Will Win It)

The 2022 Midterms Summer Calendar

Welcome to mid-June! Summer is here. You know what that means: not only is the weather about to heat up, but so are the 2022 midterms! (And more importantly for all of us, at the end of this week, my two-month break from school begins. I wish all professions knew the blissful feeling of recharging… Continue reading The 2022 Midterms Summer Calendar

Three Days Out: Saturday Senate Special

Yesterday, I admitted that of all three pieces of government up for grabs -- the House, the Senate, and the presidency -- it was the Senate I found most difficult to predict. I give Democrats the big edge in the House, and Biden a small edge in the presidential, but the Senate looks like a… Continue reading Three Days Out: Saturday Senate Special

Four Days Out: The Race for the Senate

All right, so far this week I've taken a look at the race for the House and the presidency (and the presidential tie-breaker!). Now it's time for the Senate. As I noted earlier, I've ordered this week's predictions from most to least confident, and I reserve the right to update them on Tuesday morning. As… Continue reading Four Days Out: The Race for the Senate

The PPFA Midterm Preview-and-Prediction-palooza, Part I: The Senate

We made it. Tomorrow -- tomorrow -- is the 2018 midterm election. This website's faithful readers know that I've periodically written about the 2018 Senate elections throughout the year. In all that time -- from January 15 through last week -- I've consistently reminded you that this year's combination of Senate elections gives the Democratic Party… Continue reading The PPFA Midterm Preview-and-Prediction-palooza, Part I: The Senate

Two Weeks Out: The Senate

Yesterday I found the Democrats still as small favorites to keep the House. How do I like their chances in the Senate? Let's find out... The Senate Current composition: Red = 2 Republicans; Blue = 2 Democrats; Purple = 1 of each; Green = Independents caucusing with Democrats Republicans: 51 Democrats: 47 Independents: 2 (both caucus with Democrats, effectively giving them 49)… Continue reading Two Weeks Out: The Senate

Quick Hit Friday: The Four Midterm Scenarios and Their Ramifications

What's this? A Friday post? You're darn right it is. It's that time of year. This week's main post was historical, but with under 20 days until the 2018 Midterms, I can't let a week go by without weighing in on the election. I'll have another formal, data-driven breakdown of the race for the Two… Continue reading Quick Hit Friday: The Four Midterm Scenarios and Their Ramifications

The Nine Senate Races to Follow in October

Welcome to October, PPFA readers! While I adore baseball's "Fall Classic" (especially when my beloved Red Sox are poised for a successful run), every two years the month of October gives us an even more heated contest: imminent federal elections. Tomorrow marks five weeks until the 2018 Midterms, when the entire House of Representatives and… Continue reading The Nine Senate Races to Follow in October

2018 Midterms: Two Months Out—The Senate

On Thursday I predicted the Democratic Party would take control of the House, but what about the Senate? Let's find out... The Senate Current composition: Red = 2 Republicans; Blue = 2 Democrats; Purple = 1 of each; Green = Independents caucusing with Democrats Republicans: 51 Democrats: 47 Independents: 2 (both caucus with Democrats, effectively giving them 49) Wrinkle: Vice-President Pence serves as… Continue reading 2018 Midterms: Two Months Out—The Senate