Post-Iowa Polls (Democrats)

Unlike yesterday's look at the post-Iowa Republican polls, when I quickly ran through the national numbers before taking a closer look at New Hampshire, for the Democrats I think it's more relevant to quickly dispense with New Hampshire before examining national polling. Whereas the New Hampshire results can have many important consequences on the Republican Primary,… Continue reading Post-Iowa Polls (Democrats)


The Case of the Puzzling Polls

"The science of public surveying is in something of a crisis right now." -Geoffrey Skelley, political analyst, University of Virginia's Center for Politics. One week out from the Iowa caucuses, the primaries might be more volatile than you think. Today and tomorrow, I'm explaining why. Today: to what extent do we trust recent polling? Over the… Continue reading The Case of the Puzzling Polls

New Polls!

For a week, dating back to Thanksgiving, there were no polls to quench our thirst. It was a boring week for PPFA, and as a result it was surely a boring week for its readers. But now, thanks to recent national polling from Quinnipiac and New Hampshire numbers from Public Policy Polling, we have some numbers to… Continue reading New Polls!

Carson leads in National Poll; Biden Passes Sanders

For the first time since July 12, Donald Trump is not ahead in a national poll. Instead, Ben Carson has the lead in this IBD/TIFF poll from 9/26 to 10/1. The full results: Carson: 24 Trump: 17 Rubio: 11 Fiorina: 9 Bush: 8 Cruz: 6 Kasich: 4 Paul: 3 Christie, Huckabee: 2 Jindal: 1 Santorum,… Continue reading Carson leads in National Poll; Biden Passes Sanders

PPFA’s Near Perfect Prognostication

CNN gave us our first post-debate poll yesterday! Let's examine them via checking my Friday predictions. At the far left of this chart are the main results of the poll: So how'd I do? Let's take a look. (Warning: I'm about to be pretty "braggadocious.") Prediction #0: "We could well have to wait until Sunday" for the first poll. Verdict:… Continue reading PPFA’s Near Perfect Prognostication