Pre-Power Rankings Thoughts on Debate Thresholds and Early State Polls

Tomorrow will be my first Democratic Power Rankings of 2020, but before I get to them, something must be addressed -- something  that impacts those rankings and is getting a lot of attention from mid-tier candidates. Two factors have combined to potentially keep the January 14 Des Moines, Iowa debate to just five candidates: The… Continue reading Pre-Power Rankings Thoughts on Debate Thresholds and Early State Polls

Quick Hit… Wednesday?!: Pre-Debate Polls

Though I was satisfied with my official debate preview from Monday morning, a few more polls leaked out in the last couple days, and I think they offer some extra layers of context for tonight's debate. Below are five such contextualizations. I'll list them in reverse order of importance, and, in the spirit of Quick… Continue reading Quick Hit… Wednesday?!: Pre-Debate Polls

Ranking Primary Favorites of the 21st Century

As teased on Tuesday, I don't think Joe Biden's front-runner status is as strong as his polling numbers suggest. Though I've considered him the front-runner ever since the 2018 midterms (and indeed since Hillary Clinton's general election loss), I've been surprised at how quickly pundits and oddsmakers, many of whom had him trailing Kamala Harris… Continue reading Ranking Primary Favorites of the 21st Century

Instructive March Polls for 2020: Day Five — Ageism?

Author's note: This will make more sense if you read Monday's post: Percentage completion of March: 90 Percent progress to February's Visitor number: 90!! This week I'm deploying a desperate attempt to reach February's Visitor count by doing one short (read: under 1000 words) post a day with a theme: some kernel of illuminating information… Continue reading Instructive March Polls for 2020: Day Five — Ageism?

Instructive March Polls for 2020: Day Four — Bernie Sanders’s Viability

Author's note: This will make more sense if you read Monday's post: Percentage completion of March: 87 Percent progress to February's Visitor number: 86!! This week I'm deploying a desperate attempt to reach February's Visitor count by doing one short (read: under 1000 words) post a day with a theme: some kernel of illuminating information… Continue reading Instructive March Polls for 2020: Day Four — Bernie Sanders’s Viability

Instructive March Polls for 2020: Day Three — The “FoxHole”

Author's note: This will make more sense if you read Monday's post: Percentage completion of March: 84 Percent progress to February's Visitor number: 80 This week I'm deploying a desperate attempt to reach February's Visitor count by doing one short (read: under 1000 words) post a day with a theme: some kernel of illuminating information… Continue reading Instructive March Polls for 2020: Day Three — The “FoxHole”

Instructive March Polls for 2020: Day Two — Iowa!

Author's note: This will make more sense if you read yesterday's post: Percent completion of March: 81 Percent progress to February's Visitor number: 76! This week I'm deploying a desperate attempt to reach February's Visitor count by doing one short (read: under 1000 words) post a day with a theme: some kernel of illuminating information… Continue reading Instructive March Polls for 2020: Day Two — Iowa!

Instructive March Polls for 2020: Day One — Trump’s Re-Election Numbers

Author's note: As my most loyal readers know, I've recently enjoyed¬†consecutive monthly growth in this website's "Visitor" category, which measures the number of people that come to the site each day. (It should not be confused with "Views," which measures total clicks. One visitor can read 10 things on any given day, but that only… Continue reading Instructive March Polls for 2020: Day One — Trump’s Re-Election Numbers

The Implications of Trump’s Rising Polls

One year ago, I wrote about¬†President Trump's inevitable rise in the polls. I brought up how Democrats organized protests throughout President Nixon's first term before he earned his 49-state re-election. I noted President Reagan's early unpopularity -- even worse than Trump's right now -- before he, too, won 49 states.¬† And now, Gallup has given… Continue reading The Implications of Trump’s Rising Polls

The President’s Poor Polling

President Trump's approval rating has steadily fallen throughout his presidency. According to Real Clear Politics, which charts all major presidential polling, his first few weeks as commander-in-chief saw Trump bobbing above water as often as he sank below it: Since then, of course, those numbers have grown increasingly bleak. Trump has had a net-negative approval… Continue reading The President’s Poor Polling