First Roe, Next Obergefell?

Last week’s emergency post on the Dobbs v. Jackson leaked draft gave PPFA is highest weekly readership of the year, so I’m here to give the people more of what they want.

As I noted in that post, both the ruling itself and the fact that there was a leak are each really big deals and deserve attention from the media and our lawmakers, although depending on one’s partisanship they’ve chosen to emphasize one or the other. I also discussed the potential political implications of Roe v. Wade getting overturned, including, perhaps, a badly needed adrenaline boost into the arm of Democratic Senate candidates.

Today, however, I want to speculate about where else this conservative-leaning Supreme Court might make itself felt. There’s one prior SCOTUS case in particular that might be in its crosshairs: 2015’s Obergefell v. Hodges, which legalized same-sex marriage coast to coast.

If the Court applies the same logic to Obergefell as it did Roe, I’m not sure how long the precedent will last. To best understand why, today I want to answer the following questions:

  1. What was Obergefell v. Hodges?
  2. How might Justice Alito’s leaked Dobbs reasoning relate to Obergefell?
  3. Would this Supreme Court actually act on this reasoning if a case challenged Obergefell?
  4. What are the best pro-Roe and –Obergefell legal arguments?
  5. And what are the political implications of a threatened Obergefell?
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