Midterms 2022: The Day After

How much sleep did you get? I didn't get much. Sure, I turned the TV off before 11... but that phone was never too far or off for too long. Since my coffee hasn't counteracted this sleep loss, this post might be messy, but I'm rushing it out to you during study hall. Here are… Continue reading Midterms 2022: The Day After

Midterms 2022: Final Predictions

Happy Election Day, dear readers! No matter who you vote for, make sure you vote. A healthy democratic republic relies on input from the public. Plus, maybe more importantly, if you don't vote you don't get to complain for the next two years. I swear I will enforce this moratorium. This afternoon I'll be voting… Continue reading Midterms 2022: Final Predictions

Two Days Out: A Senate Deep Dive

Barring a realistic Democratic surprise on the level of, I don't know, Donald Trump becoming president of the United States or something, the Republicans are about to win back control of the House of Representatives. The Senate picture is cloudier, however, and today will be my last deep dive into the chamber before I lock… Continue reading Two Days Out: A Senate Deep Dive

How the Democrats (Might) Win

FiveThirtyEight forecasts the Republican Party is 85% likely to win the House of Representatives. That's about a 5-in-6 chance. Inversely, Democrats have a 1-in-6 chance of winning. That's about the likelihood of rolling a certain number on a typical die. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight also forecasts Republicans have become the favorites in the Senate, and are in… Continue reading How the Democrats (Might) Win

Six Days Out: Closing in on a House Prediction

The end is in sight! November 8 is less than a week away! You're going to make it. My final 2022 Midterms prediction for both chambers will come on Tuesday's Election Day. In order to keep that post reasonably sized, I'll separate my final deep analyses of the House (today) and the Senate (I think… Continue reading Six Days Out: Closing in on a House Prediction

900 Words on John Fetterman, Herschel Walker, & the Political Brain

One of the more revealing books I've read on the subject of political science is "The Political Brain," published in 2006 by the psychologist Drew Westen. I don't hold against Westen that his book has nearly seven times more Amazon reviews than mine, but I do resent that he had the time and resources to… Continue reading 900 Words on John Fetterman, Herschel Walker, & the Political Brain

2022 Midterms: Two Weeks Out

We're now just two weeks from November 8's midterm elections. It's time for another set of data analysis from your favorite political pundit. (Wait, I'm your favorite, right? Top three maybe? Top 50? Do you like me at all? Hang on, do you hate-read this column? That makes sense. Sometimes I hate-write it.) Throughout 2022… Continue reading 2022 Midterms: Two Weeks Out

The Five Races That Will Decide the Senate

Okay, so it looks like the Republicans will take the House. The Senate, however, will be tight. Yesterday, I broke down the Senate race to its component bits. We know that of the 100 Senate seats, 65 don't have elections this year (36 Democratic-held seats, 29 Republican-held seats), leaving only 35 that do. I determined… Continue reading The Five Races That Will Decide the Senate

Midterms 2022, Four Weeks Out: The Senate

Last week, I reaffirmed my prediction that despite some modest momentum in Democrats' direction, the GOP would still win the House at November 8's midterm elections. I found that Democrats haven't made enough progress to overcome the fundamentals working in Republicans' favor. There is simply too much gravity pulling against the Democratic Party, and since… Continue reading Midterms 2022, Four Weeks Out: The Senate

October Surprise! PPFA Returns for Midterms Coverage

I'm back, and I can't apologize enough for that. There might legitimately be something wrong with my brain. Do I get paid for this? No. Does it take time to write? Obviously. So why do I do it? I honestly don't know anymore. But with an election looming, I just can't stay away. When we… Continue reading October Surprise! PPFA Returns for Midterms Coverage