The 2022 Midterms Summer Calendar

Welcome to mid-June! Summer is here. You know what that means: not only is the weather about to heat up, but so are the 2022 midterms! (And more importantly for all of us, at the end of this week, my two-month break from school begins. I wish all professions knew the blissful feeling of recharging depleted batteries.)

Fewer than 150 days remain between us and the November 8 midterm elections, where the entire House and one-third of the Senate are up for re-election. I’m still convinced, as I was in January and May (to say nothing of last August), that a red wave will drench the House of Representatives. The Senate, too, is likely to go Republican, although we’ll see if the dramatic overturning of Roe, or some bad Republican nominees, help the Democrats hold the chamber.

Unless it’s a presidential year, summers are typically lazy for electoral politics, but perhaps hyperpartisanship keeps people’s attention between now and the fall. If you are one such mindful American, I thought a political calendar for the next three months might be useful.

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Six Months Out: The Race for the Senate

(Here’s what I was hoping to post on Tuesday before a leaker at the Supreme Court forced me to write about that instead.)

On Monday, I reaffirmed my longstanding position that the Democrats’ House majority is doomed. This November, Republicans will re-take the House of Representatives.

But what of the Senate? The Dobbs v. Jackson leaked draft offered a reminder of the Senate’s impact on the Supreme Court. Since they have the “advice and consent” power over the President’s judicial appointments, Senate elections are the most direct way voters can send a message that the Court is marching at a different pace than the American people. Toward the end of today’s post, I have some state-by-state polling that shows legal abortion is popular in some of the midterms’ key battleground states, which could make the difference.

Might Democrats now rally enough troops to save the upper chamber? Let’s take a look.

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The 2022 Midterms: Six Months Out

It’s now six months before the party of inflation and mandates takes on the party of overturning free and fair elections. I can’t wait to see who America picks!

Four years ago, when we were six months away from the 2018 midterms, I made official predictions from which I never wavered: the Democrats were going to take the House but the Republicans would hold the Senate. I was right then, and I’m going to be right again now.

Six months out from the 2022 midterms, let’s take a look at the race for the two chambers of Congress.

Part I: The House of Representatives

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The 2022 Midterms, Part II: Setting up the Senate

Last week, in a post I could have subtitled Doomed Democrats, I outlined the party’s nearly impossible uphill climb to hold on to their House majority. To me, it looks like Republicans taking the chamber is a lock.

But what of the Senate? In many ways, the Senate is the more important chamber. It is the Senate that has advice and consent on major presidential appointments, most notably the federal courts. A Republican-controlled Senate, for example, could deny any of President Biden’s Supreme Court nominations, as we saw in the last 11 months of President Obama’s administration, to say nothing of lower federal court nominations as well.

Meanwhile, a Republican Senate and House gives the party control of Congress. Although Biden would hold a veto pen in his hand, which may or may not have the strength to finish signing his name before his 4:00 dinner, that doesn’t mean a Republican-controlled Congress would be powerless. Swinging with Congress’s new ideology would be its appetite for oversight over the executive branch. If Republicans control both chambers, neither would be particularly likely to look into President Trump’s role in January 6. Meanwhile, a majority of both chambers would be quick to look into any Biden-related controversies, particularly ones involving his son, Hunter.

Another consequence of a Republican Senate majority: say hello, once again, to the man that keeps Democrats up at night, someone who invades their dreams before later squashing them — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, for my money the most effective leader of either chamber that I can remember.

So yes, with the House a lost cause, the race for the Senate is all the more important, with the federal courts, political investigations, and the office of Senate Majority Leader hanging in the balance. With that in mind, let’s break down the race for the Senate in 2022.

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The 2022 Midterms, Part I: History & the House

It’s good to be back! This week on Presidential Politics for America:

First up… some bragging.

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