2018 Midterms: Two Months Out—The Senate

On Thursday I predicted the Democratic Party would take control of the House, but what about the Senate? Let's find out... The Senate Current composition: Red = 2 Republicans; Blue = 2 Democrats; Purple = 1 of each; Green = Independents caucusing with Democrats Republicans: 51 Democrats: 47 Independents: 2 (both caucus with Democrats, effectively giving them 49) Wrinkle: Vice-President Pence serves as… Continue reading 2018 Midterms: Two Months Out—The Senate


2018 Midterms: Two Months Out—The House

(What's this? A Thursday post?! You're welcome! Today marks two months until the November 6 midterm election, so we'll mark the occasion with my latest breakdown of the race for the House. I'll be back with your regularly scheduled Monday programming with my latest take on the Senate. Enjoy!) Ten months out  Six months out… Continue reading 2018 Midterms: Two Months Out—The House

The Implications of Trump’s Rising Polls

One year ago, I wrote about President Trump's inevitable rise in the polls. I brought up how Democrats organized protests throughout President Nixon's first term before he earned his 49-state re-election. I noted President Reagan's early unpopularity -- even worse than Trump's right now -- before he, too, won 49 states.  And now, Gallup has given… Continue reading The Implications of Trump’s Rising Polls

2018 Midterms: Six Months Out

It's been four months since my first 2018 midterms analysis. Now, just a half-year from our next set of major federal elections, it feels like a good time to see what, if anything, has changed since that initial analysis. At "Ten Months Out," I predicted the GOP would retain both houses of Congress. Should I… Continue reading 2018 Midterms: Six Months Out

PPFA’s First Look at the 2018 Midterms: Part 2–Sketching the Senate

Last week, when I painted the House, I discovered that despite the strength of Democrats on overrated "generic ballots," they still had an uphill climb to obtain the majority in the House of Representatives (even if a record number of Republican House members are retiring). If Democrats' quest to regain the House ultimately fails, that… Continue reading PPFA’s First Look at the 2018 Midterms: Part 2–Sketching the Senate

PPFA’s First Look at the 2018 Midterms: Part 1–Painting the House

In American politics, every even-numbered year hosts widespread federal elections. Though presidential elections understandably garner more attention, in between those contests are "midterm" elections, so-named due to the president being in the middle of his or her term. Though we obsess over the presidency, these midterm elections should receive as much of our attention; they essentially… Continue reading PPFA’s First Look at the 2018 Midterms: Part 1–Painting the House

It’s Not Too Late for a Trump Turnaround

(PPFA's contractual obligation to look back at Trump's first hundred days...) In 1968, Richard Nixon barely eclipsed 300 electoral votes in his victory over Hubert Humphrey. Nixon's popular vote share fell well short of 50 percent. The sizable, defeated left spent the next four years protesting and raising hell in its quest to topple the new… Continue reading It’s Not Too Late for a Trump Turnaround