Halfway There: After a Midterm Loss, How Do Trump’s Re-Election Chances Compare to That of His Predecessors?

It's been two years since President Trump's inauguration -- and two months since the Democratic Party had its most successful House midterm since Watergate. Now that all the votes are finally counted, we know that the Democrats did better than we thought on midterm night. Their 40-to-41-seat gain outstripped even the Democratic wave election of… Continue reading Halfway There: After a Midterm Loss, How Do Trump’s Re-Election Chances Compare to That of His Predecessors?

The Midterm Cycle Is Over. The Presidential Cycle Now Begins.

(My sincerest thanks to all veterans for bravely protecting our country so cowards like me can write about it.) And that's it. Though I missed a couple Senate races, I was generally right across the board, mostly thanks to few surprises. Of all my predictions, however, perhaps what what most rings true is the reaction… Continue reading The Midterm Cycle Is Over. The Presidential Cycle Now Begins.

The PPFA Midterm Preview-and-Prediction-palooza, Part II: The House

Okay, so the Republicans will keep the Senate. But what about the House? In this current Congress, the Democrats seat 193 members of the House. Since 218 are needed for a majority, the question we ask today is: can they add 25 seats? One last time, let's check in on... The Big Three Indicators A. Generic… Continue reading The PPFA Midterm Preview-and-Prediction-palooza, Part II: The House

The PPFA Midterm Preview-and-Prediction-palooza, Part I: The Senate

We made it. Tomorrow -- tomorrow -- is the 2018 midterm election. This website's faithful readers know that I've periodically written about the 2018 Senate elections throughout the year. In all that time -- from January 15 through last week -- I've consistently reminded you that this year's combination of Senate elections gives the Democratic Party… Continue reading The PPFA Midterm Preview-and-Prediction-palooza, Part I: The Senate

Seven Midterms Questions Seven Days Before “The Most Important Election Of Our Lifetime”

Don't you miss the old days when column titles were more clever? Who cares, let's go. 1. What's the latest with some key metrics? A. Generic ballot (according to Real Clear Politics average of polls): October 23: Democrats 48.8, Republicans 41.1 (Dems +7.7) October 30: Democrats 49.5, Republicans 41.9 (Dems +7.6) Dare I say we're locking into the… Continue reading Seven Midterms Questions Seven Days Before “The Most Important Election Of Our Lifetime”

Two Weeks Out: The Senate

Yesterday I found the Democrats still as small favorites to keep the House. How do I like their chances in the Senate? Let's find out... The Senate Current composition: Red = 2 Republicans; Blue = 2 Democrats; Purple = 1 of each; Green = Independents caucusing with Democrats Republicans: 51 Democrats: 47 Independents: 2 (both caucus with Democrats, effectively giving them 49)… Continue reading Two Weeks Out: The Senate

Two Weeks Out: The House

Ten Months Out Six Months Out Two Months Out October 1 (Senate) Four Weeks Out (House) I first sat down to write about these Midterms during a cold January in Connecticut. After spring and summer updates, the weather now cools again. We're just a fortnight away from determining which party will have control of each… Continue reading Two Weeks Out: The House

Quick Hit Friday: The Four Midterm Scenarios and Their Ramifications

What's this? A Friday post? You're darn right it is. It's that time of year. This week's main post was historical, but with under 20 days until the 2018 Midterms, I can't let a week go by without weighing in on the election. I'll have another formal, data-driven breakdown of the race for the Two… Continue reading Quick Hit Friday: The Four Midterm Scenarios and Their Ramifications

The 2018 Midterms: Painting the House Four Weeks Out

Last week I broke down the nine races that will determine who controls the Senate. I again called it for the Republican Party. (Afterward, Real Clear Politics -- which moved North Dakota from toss-up to lean GOP -- and FiveThirtyEight -- which increased Republican chances to keep the Senate from 68 to 78 percent -- each… Continue reading The 2018 Midterms: Painting the House Four Weeks Out

The Nine Senate Races to Follow in October

Welcome to October, PPFA readers! While I adore baseball's "Fall Classic" (especially when my beloved Red Sox are poised for a successful run), every two years the month of October gives us an even more heated contest: imminent federal elections. Tomorrow marks five weeks until the 2018 Midterms, when the entire House of Representatives and… Continue reading The Nine Senate Races to Follow in October