Presidential Politics for America
Where We’re Looking Forward to Our Government Bailout
Six months out projection: 276-262, Clinton Three months out: 320-218, Clinton One month out: 272-266, Clinton Ten days out: 333-205, Clinton Hours later: James Comey sends a letter. We'll remember the morning of Friday, October 28 as "Peak Clinton." We'll remember everything since as "Peak Democratic Panic." Well, everything until yesterday, that is. In the last two weeks of this election, what… Continue reading Electoral Math: Election Eve Edition
At six months to go before the election, Presidential Politics for America projected a 276 to 262 Electoral College result in favor of Hillary Clinton. Three months later, Clinton extended her projected win to 320 to 218. Then, at the one-month mark, the projected lead was drastically cut to 272 to 266. With the three debates behind us… Continue reading Electoral Math: Ten Days Out
At six months to go before the election, Presidential Politics for America projected a 276 to 262 Electoral College result in favor of Hillary Clinton. Three months later, Clinton extended her projected win to 320 to 218. Since then, however, Donald Trump significantly closed the gap. With only one month left, just how close is it? I'm not taking any… Continue reading Electoral Math: ONE MONTH OUT
(Author's note: My last check-in with electoral math occurred at the six-month mark. Here are Parts 1 and 2 of that edition, which introduced some of the concepts of electoral math calculations. Read them if I lose you below.) Three months ago, Presidential Politics for America projected a 276 to 262 result in the Electoral College in favor of Hillary Clinton. The distance to… Continue reading Electoral Math: Three Months Out
My last post, which broke down premature electoral math, closed with scenarios that give us a 269-269 electoral tie between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. You might have wondered: what would happen next? If it is a tie (or if, let's say, a third candidate wins enough electoral votes to keep all three candidates under 270 electoral votes, even if… Continue reading What If It’s a Tie?
Four years ago, when I wrote about the 2012 election for Construction, I identified the number one most important statistic in presidential elections: voting intentions in swing states. That's it. That's the ball game. Other statistics are only relevant insofar as they feed into swing state polling. To that end, my last post reconstructed the Blue Wall and Red… Continue reading Electoral Math: Six Months Out (Part 2)
Presidential Politics for America 