“Ides of March” Tuesday: Democrats

We had "Super" Tuesday. We had "Junior" Tuesday. Now it's time for . . . "Ides of March" Tuesday. I implore you to beware of it. Why? Because for both parties it will determine the narrative for the rest of the primary. Tomorrow, I'll take a look at the important Republican contests. Today: the Democrats,… Continue reading “Ides of March” Tuesday: Democrats



We're still three days from the Florida Primary, but it already deserves a post of its own. We haven't yet had a contest that can have such a major influence on the Republican Primary. There's a reason Thursday's debate was in Miami. There's a reason we've had 11 Republican polls released in thefive days. No state since Iowa and New Hampshire… Continue reading Florida.

Michigan Primary (and others) Preview

There's barely any time to breathe in between primary days. More often than not, it seems there are either upcoming contests to preview or completed contests to unpack. Is anyone enjoying themselves as much as I am? I just took a look at my posting history. From January 25th through today -- a period of 44… Continue reading Michigan Primary (and others) Preview

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine…

What a difference a week makes. Popular narrative heading into the week of February 29 said that Donald Trump was dominating and would have a great SEC Primary, potentially becoming an unstoppable force. The narrative said that anti-Trumpers' best hope was for John Kasich, a total afterthought in the delegate count, to drop out so Marco Rubio, who had just beaten Ted Cruz… Continue reading Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine…

Four Candidates, Four States

Today, Republicans will vote in Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Maine. (What's up with these four states appearing consecutively on an alphabetical list?) Democrats in Kansas and Louisiana will also vote today, as will Democratic Nebraskans. Their Mainers hit the polls tomorrow. (Kentucky Democrats have to wait until May.) Let's take a look. Republican Contests It's no Super Tuesday. Four days ago,… Continue reading Four Candidates, Four States

Republican Super Tuesday Analysis

It's Donald Trump or it's a contested convention. Thanks to Super Tuesday and Marco Rubio's gross inability to connect with voters, there is no third possibility. Here are delegate projections from the 11 Super Tuesday states who were allocating them last night and how my predictions stacked up against them: It appears Cruz will thoroughly beat expectations. More on him… Continue reading Republican Super Tuesday Analysis

Super Tuesday Preview: Democrats

Happy Super Tuesday Eve! Rather than have a gargantuan preview for both parties tomorrow, I'll split them up over two days and hope that today's information isn't outdated in 24 hours. I'll start with the Democrats because, let's face it, their primary isn't nearly as dramatic. South Carolina confirmed the voting patterns we had long been expecting. Tomorrow… Continue reading Super Tuesday Preview: Democrats

Hillary Wins Big; Democrat Standings

"It’ll be Hillary Clinton. By a lot. Like, by 30."  Well, I was half right. She won by a lot. I guess we shouldn't have thrown out that Clemson "outlier" poll after all. Of the last ten polls before South Carolina, which dated back two weeks, Clinton led nine of them by between 18 and 29.… Continue reading Hillary Wins Big; Democrat Standings

South Carolina (D) Primary Preview

It'll be Hillary Clinton. By a lot. Like, by 30. As the polls show, there is no drama here: We should probably throw out the Clemson poll on account of its anomalous 50-point spread, but consider that it's only one of two South Carolina polls taken since Clinton's Nevada victory. Those old polls from mid-February… Continue reading South Carolina (D) Primary Preview

Democratic Primary Standings (2/22)

(Author's note: for a far-too-detailed look at why delegate projections don't speak with one voice, click here.) How did Nevada affect the Democratic delegate count? It looks like of Nevada's 35 delegates, 19 have been given to Clinton, 15 to Sanders, and one is still being determined. Since the last standings, however, more superdelegates have declared,… Continue reading Democratic Primary Standings (2/22)