Bernie Sanders is without question in the best position to win the most delegates in the Democratic Primary. He won the popular vote in the first two contests, he now leads national polls, and Joe Biden, once Sanders’s top rival in this race, looks like a car driving down the road with various parts falling off it.
Though Sanders faces resistance from the pile-up in the moderate lane, a pile-up it remains. As long as Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg vie to be the alternative to Sanders, Sanders should win most primaries and caucuses.
Considering the above, some people compare Sanders 2020 to Trump 2016. Both had a high floor of devoted, non-mainstream support, which aided them against the internecine conflicts of the establishment. Though Trump had a hard time winning popular vote majorities, his consistent plurality victories were enough to dominate the primary. Indeed, though he only won 44.9% of the primary vote, he won 1,441 of the 2,472 pledged delegates — a comfortable majority rate of 58.2%. Even that 44.9 number was a bit inflated; he clinched a delegate majority before the the last nine contests, each of which voted for an opponent-less Trump with 60 to 80 percent of the vote, including a 75% number from mega-California.
The theory now is that Sanders can follow a similar path: keep winning pluralities and contests until he has a delegate majority, outlast all the losers, and then voters have no one left to choose by the end of it. Makes sense.
Or does it?
Continue reading “Quick Hit Friday: Comparing the Paths of Trump 2016 and Sanders 2020”
Author’s note: This will make more sense if you read Monday’s post: Percentage completion of March: 87 Percent progress to February’s Visitor number: 86!! This week I’m deploying a desperate attempt to reach February’s Visitor count by doing one short … Continue reading Instructive March Polls for 2020: Day Four — Bernie Sanders’s Viability
I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking, “Wait a minute. After a convention that nominated Hillary Clinton for president — the first female nominee of a major party in our country’s history — you’re giving us a Bernie Sanders post? This is why practically … Continue reading The Perishability of Revolutionary Time
“Don’t underestimate me.” –Bernie Sanders, May 3, 2015 Thirteen months ago, when Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy in Washington, fawning onlookers dutifully recorded notes after their editors made them show up. Shots below. There were dozens of them. Dozens! Quite the … Continue reading Sanders’s Swan Song
In many ways, following politics is like following sports. There are the terms: comeback, blowout, brawl, momentum, who’s ahead, who’s behind, knockout punch, and so many more. There are the colors: red team, blue team (green team!). Most of all, there’s the innate … Continue reading Are the Primaries “Rigged”?
All I want to do is write about the dramatic Republican race, and yet the topic I’m most asked about is Bernie Sanders’s chances to complete the comeback. On this issue, you can count me as one cog in the corrupt … Continue reading Sanders Is Almost Out of Time. Almost.
If it’s your first visit of the week, you’ll want to catch up with Part 1 and Part 2 of my quest to identify what candidate best matches Bernie Sanders. Today, I arrive at the answer. Bernie Sanders is Bill Bradley 2000 … Continue reading Who is Bernie Sanders? (Part 3)
I’ll start with a paragraph explaining what this post is not. It is not a post telling you who to vote for. It is not a post suggesting you not waste your vote on Bernie Sanders. It is not a post … Continue reading Who is Bernie Sanders? (Part 1)